The Sudanese Revolution: The Price of Failure
Failure is not an option, no one can afford for the Sudanese revolution to fail in uprooting the Islamic terrorist regime that is still alive and kicking and lurking in the shadows waiting for an opportune moment to bounce back and throttle the revolution. Sudanese people, neighbouring countries, the international community, honest officers in the Sudanese army and the rapid response force will all pay a heavy price if the deep state regains control of power in Sudan. Latest reports say the officers of National Intelligence and Security Service are rejecting the calls for their immunity to be lifted and to be investigated for crimes committed against the protesters.
I would like to describe the group that ruled Sudan for the last 30 years because if you are not Sudanese you have no way of knowing the truth. They are a branch of the international Muslim brotherhood movement. The same group the Trump administration is planning to designated as terrorist group in Egypt. In Sudan they have splintered into a number of parties but we call them all ‘Kiazan’ the term for a specific type of water drinking cups.
This evil group has many manifestations; they are a secret organisation with a cult-like hierarchy with all members sworn to secrecy and loyalty. Disobedience is severely punished and could lead to assassinations; Sudanese have strong suspicions that they eliminated many of their leading figures in the regime’s early years. In their political culture, they consider violence a legitimate mean to achieve political ends. That explains why the ousted president Al Bashir wanted to forcefully disperse the sit-in even if that led to killing third of the people of Sudan.
Throw into the mix a terrorist group with a proven terror record from involvement in the bombing of US embassies in Kenya and Uganda, harbouring Osama bin Laden, crimes against humanity in Darfur and the random killing of more than 250 young men and women in two days in 2013 demonstrations. No wonder the regime is still listed as a state sponsor of terrorism and the US is unlikely to lift the name of Sudan without the military council transferring power to a civilian administration.
Also, add to the description an extremist religious group that exploits the Islamic religion and the people’s religious sentiments to solidify power and achieve political ends. They proclaim to be the protectors of the word of God on earth, and anyone who threatens their power is tainted as a communist disbeliever who risks been demonized, silenced and sometimes killed. After the toppling of Al Bashir, they cried wolf and wanted to gather the faithful followers in a march to the presidential palace. The march’s aim was to defend Islamic law against phantom threats only they can see the rally was later cancelled. The 2019 report issued by the commission on international religious freedom place Sudan as a country of concern, and stated Sudan government invokes real or perceived threats of public discontent to justify not just the restriction of rights, but the outright persecution of their own people.
To top it off add a criminal gang to the mix, a gang that is involved in all kinds of criminality from drug dealing, human trafficking, disposing of nuclear waste in the north of Sudan and dissemination of false news. There is a famous capture of a whole shipping container full of illegal pills common in Sudan. Customs officers captured the shipment at Port Sudan, and it was filmed on TV, but to this day no one has been implicated, and nobody knows what happened to the drugs.
Now imagine this group with members in the tens of thousands having access to billions of dollars, two armies, armed security force and an air force. Now imagine them angry, wounded and back in power they will spare no one, and they will start by sacking and eliminating all army officers who stood by the revolution. The army officers knowing their dim fate might desert the army and join one of the armed opposition movements or start their own probably with support from some regional powers and Sudanese expats.
Things will deteriorate really fast because Sudanese people will not accept the change and continue demonstrating and boycotting all government services and refuses to deposit any cash into banks. This means the banking system will plunge again into a cash shortage crisis and this will prompt the government to print money increasing the money supply and hiking inflation. The vicious circle continues prices of necessities increases beyond people’s financial means, anger and resentment also increases and reflected in resistance actions that will be met with brute force. This group want power only to protect themselves and their ill-gotten gains, but they don’t have any solutions to the countries problems.
They will further suffocate freedoms and brutalize all people of Sudan, previously in Sudan, you can openly criticize the government as long as you do not organize. This will no longer be possible, and Sudan will become like Iraq in the days of Saddam Hessian when people will not dare talk openly about politics.
The role of the rapid response force in disposing of the ex-president and supporting the change will not be forgiven and neutralizing them would be a top priority of the deep state after their return to power. The rapid response force is a lightly armed force for quickly responding to urgent matters, but they are vulnerable to aerial attacks. They will probably retreat to Darfur an area they are familiar with its terrain and can possibly operate from there.
The risk of arm conflict in central Sudan becomes likely, and Sudan will descend into chaos. This will result in a refugee crisis on the shores of Europe the last thing Europe needs with right-wing policies gaining momentum in many countries. Beside refugees from Sudan, others will come from all neighbouring countries. With an increase in migrants numbers attempting to cross to Europe more people will fall victims to exploitation and modern-day slavery.
There is also a possibility of piracy flourishing in the red sea especially if Sudan’s economy did not recover and there is no means of making a living. The coast of the red sea is a much better stretch of coast than Somalia, and the Red Sea Mountains provide plenty of hiding locations. In case of the collapse of the state, I would not be surprised if Somali pirates shifted their operations to the red sea.
The international community will miss out on the contributions Sudan can make to global food security a very pressing matter in the coming years. Africa will miss out on a model democratic example that could be emulated and signals a new down for African democracies alongside Ethiopian’s. Dismantling the old regime’s deep state is a must, because even if they fail to regain control they will make sure democracy fails and they will sabotage it from the inside. Not all these predicted scenarios might materialize but some will definitely do. Now you can understand why protesters are refusing to leave the sit-in even if there an agreement between the protesters and military council is reached because they know too well the battle is not over yet.
